More phosphoric acid refining capacity needed as LFP demand increases

Demand for lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries is on the rise as automakers look for ways to further reduce the cost of electric vehicles.

Securing raw material supply to meet increased demand for batteries will continue to be a trend in coming years, with attention from automakers now turning to the phosphoric acid supply chain.

The automotive sector currently represents about 5% of purified phosphoric acid (PPA) demand, but that number is expected to jump to 24% by 2030. This emerging demand will need to be satisfied by new sources of supply, according to Benchmark’s recently released Phosphoric Acid Market Outlook.

“Understanding how phosphoric acid capacity will scale is of critical importance to the lithium-ion economy and its longer-term technological evolution,” Maximilian Court, product director at Benchmark, said.

Increasing lithium-ion battery demand paired with a rising intensity of PPA usage is set to increase the need for this raw material in cathodes by more than 28 times compared with 2020, according to Benchmark’s Phosphoric Acid Market Outlook.

Furthermore, next-generation LFP and lithium manganese iron phosphate (LFMP) cathode chemistries are more energy dense, lower cost, and safer. These chemistries are expected to comprise a 42% share of cell demand by 2030.

Bottleneck expected in phosphate refining

Supply of phosphate rock is unlikely to be a constraint going forward, with six countries producing 81% of the world’s total output. China and Morocco host the largest producers, which include Guizhou Phosphate & Chemical Group (GPC) and OCP, respectively.

But phosphate rock has to be refined to reach a purity level essential for batteries. Phosphoric acid purification, to food grade standards or higher, is important because it ensures that heavy metals are removed and allows lithium-ions to have an easy passage from one electrode to the other.

Only 3% of total phosphate product supply is currently suitable for lithium ion battery applications given refinement qualifications. For LFP, food grade purified phosphoric acid (PPA) supply is needed, with demand for this battery input so far being driven by food and industrial usage.

As with some other battery raw materials, China has a dominant position in refining phosphate rock into PPA. The country had almost two-thirds of capacity in 2022.

Much processing from rock to PPA is conducted domestically because the global average grade of phosphate rock products is around 30% and transporting 70% waste is unattractive economically.

“The concentration of supply in China is set to be a key challenge for OEMs and governments over the coming forecast horizon – not just as a political, country problem but also due to the economic risks of being overly dependent on one nation for key raw material supply,” Court said.

There are just three PPA expansion projects outside of China, with all existing production supplied to incumbent customers. What’s more, Benchmark expects PPA supply from the rest of the world excluding China to lose market share by the end of the decade, declining from 42% in 2022 to 33% by 2030.

“Securing sources of PPA supply outside of China will be necessary for Western gigafactories. It’s really important that western OEMs, governments and businesses address upcoming market deficits now,” Jessica Roberts, Benchmark’s head of forecasting, said.

As with some other battery raw materials, the global phosphorus supply chain needs investment in PPA refining capacity to meet supply for batteries. Around $100 million in capital investment is required for a 30,000 tonne PPA plant and many of these large-scale facilities will be required in order to satisfy market deficits expected by 2030.

“Large capital investment will be required in a timely fashion to support the LFP – and broader lithium-ion battery supply chain – yet only three expansion projects are currently committed to by ex-China producers,” Court said.

Benchmark’s newly released Phosphoric Acid Market Outlook service assesses phosphoric acid and P2O5 market balance for supply, demand and prices with a high-level cost breakdown out to 2030 on a quarterly basis.

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