Rangebound trading persists as firm costs offset muted battery demand: Manganese Sulphate Q3 2026 Price Review

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Benchmark’s Manganese Sulphate (32%) EXW China prices moved within a tight band through Q3 2026. This followed a Q1 surge driven by high sulphuric acid prices and the cancellation of export tax rebates on NCM precursors and cathode materials, and a small Q2 correction as off-season downstream operating rates slowed and idled capacity restarted.

Manganese sulphate ended Q3 at RMB 7,116/tonne ($1,060/tonne), up 1.1% from the end of Q2. It hit a quarter low of RMB 7,043/tonne ($1,042/tonne) in mid-July and a high of RMB 7,178/tonne ($1,062/tonne) later in the month.

Daisy Jennings-Gray, head of prices at Benchmark, said that “overall, seasonal restocking, tight supply, and firm feedstock costs held prices steady in a quiet quarter, suggesting the next move is more likely to come from cost pass-through than from any shift in cathode chemistry demand.”

Why has manganese sulphate stayed within such a tight range?

Battery-grade demand is a small fraction of total manganese consumption, a fact which has insulated sulphate from the sharper moves seen in lithium, nickel, and rare earths. Despite stable prices, lack of sulphuric acid availability has reduced activity on the manganese spot market, with some producers holding inventory below recommended safe thresholds, meaning the tight sulphate supply picture is unlikely to ease in the short term.

Is LMFP providing any real support to battery-grade demand?

LFP manufacturers have reported that only two Chinese cathode producers are understood to be shipping LMFP, in small volumes, and a major Chinese battery maker has repeatedly confirmed that its second-generation flagship LFP battery contains no manganese. Manganese dissolution, which weakens cycling performance, means very few manufacturers are prioritising it in research and development, preferring to invest in fifth-generation LFP. The limited Q3 price support therefore came from supply and cost conditions rather than any shift towards manganese-bearing cathodes.

How exposed is manganese sulphate to the sulphur cost pressures hitting other chemicals?

Benchmark has previously noted that high-purity manganese sulphate monohydrate (HPMSM) production is effectively 100% exposed to sulphur and sulphuric acid market shocks, a higher share than lithium, cobalt or rare earths. Sulphuric acid prices rose 25% year-on-year in Q2 on high sulphur prices, which together with firm ore quotations and soaring freight rates has left producers with little room for concessions.

“Manganese prices did not follow the sharper sulphur spikes that hit Indonesian HPAL nickel earlier in the year,” noted Jennings-Gray. “This is likely because China’s domestic acid production relies less on Middle Eastern sulphur imports, so costs have acted as a floor rather than a driver of gains.”

Tropical Cyclone Narelle cut a major Australian producer’s Q3 ore output to 589,000wmt and prompted lower full-year guidance, although diversified ore sourcing has so far kept the disruption out of Chinese sulphate pricing.

What should manganese market participants watch in Q4?

Any renewed Middle East-related sulphur disruption could test producers’ ability to pass costs through to buyers, as could higher freight rates. The degree of rebound on Australian ore output after Cyclone Narelle will also be a significant element. Any shortfall could affect Chinese feedstock costs.

Benchmark will also be watching developments at European and North American HPMSM projects, as Western nations aim to diversify supply away from China’s dominant share of HPMSM production. Any change to the battery chemistry mix widely used by manufacturers would also be significant, but is dependent on whether LMFP can overcome manganese dissolution or high-manganese NMC can gain traction, given producers’ current focus on next-generation LFP.

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