Weak cobalt pricing sentiment across Antaike cobalt forum and LME Week driven by low LCO demand and large inventories

Cobalt market participants at the recent Antaike Nickel and Cobalt Forum (13–15 October) and LME Week (19–23 October) events in China and London respectively have uniformly reported weak pricing sentiment. This is driven by soft LCO demand and large stocks of cobalt sulphate, precursor cathode active material (pCAM) and recycled material in China. Huayou, Greatpower, Tengyuan and CTT have halted metal production, while Greatpower’s salt line is running at only 20% utilisation.

Several sources told Benchmark they expect the DRC to cut export quotas by 25% next year, with some traders anticipating an announcement in late October or early November, whilst others are expecting intervention in January or February 2027.

“A 25% quota cut would land on a market that is already well supplied with intermediates, so the price response will depend on how quickly Chinese stocks are drawn down,” said George Ingall, senior analyst at Benchmark.

Black mass emerges as key feedstock

Chinese sulphate producers increasingly rely on recycled material, and several sources told Benchmark the cheapest sulphate in the market comes from black mass, with most estimates of recycled cobalt supply sitting between 30kt–45kt per year.

During Antaike’s Forum, European cobalt metal prices sat at $21–23/lb, which was well above the $16–17/lb heard in China. During LME Week, the European market corrected down, with transactions heard in the range of $17.5-19.5/lb. Market participants also tempered hopes that Indonesia can fill any DRC shortfall, with expectations voiced of Indonesian MHP output of 40–50kt rather than the 60–70kt expected in China.

Dislocation raises demand for transparent reference prices

“With prices this fragmented, reliable reference points matter more than ever,” Ingall said.

Benchmark’s cobalt price assessments cover hydroxide CIF Asia, mixed hydroxide precipitate CIF Asia, sulphate EXW China, oxide EXW China, and metal and alloy metal EXW Europe, with hydroxide and metal published daily.

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