Lithium industry needs the equivalent of 134 new mines by 2050 to meet growing demand

Between now and 2050, the lithium industry will need the equivalent of 134 new lithium mines to keep pace with rising demand for the critical mineral. Of these, 44 are needed to meet demand growth between 2040 and 2050 alone.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts that global lithium demand will reach ~7 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2050, with 76% of this driven by electric vehicles.

This is an increase of 4.8 million tonnes from a demand of 2.11 million tonnes LCE in 2026. At an average mine size of 36,000 tonnes LCE, this growth is equivalent to the output of 134 new mines – effectively a new mine every two months for the next 24 years.

“Meeting 2050 demand requires the equivalent of 134 new lithium mines, more than US$100 billion of investment before any contribution from recycling, rising to more than 180 mines in our upside scenario,” said Cameron Perks, Product Director – Lithium at Benchmark. “The biggest challenge is sustaining that investment through price cycles, while competing for capital with AI, defence and the wider energy transition.”

What is driving lithium demand?

Between 2026 and 2050, lithium demand is forecast to more than triple, with the vast majority of this growth driven by the battery market.

Batteries account for 92% of lithium demand in 2026, up from around 70% in 2020. Electric vehicles currently account for 55% of lithium demand, and this is forecast to grow to 76% by 2050 as the rapid recent growth in stationary storage moderates.

“Lithium demand from stationary storage has grown more than 60% a year for the past two years, but we expect that pace to slow significantly, to around 5% a year to the end of the decade,” Perks said.

Where is lithium mined?

Australia is forecast to be the largest producer of mined lithium in 2026, accounting for 29% of mined supply. However, Australia’s share of forecast mine supply is set to fall to 20% by 2050, even with large-scale brownfield expansions such as PLS’s P2000 factored in for a start around 2030.

“Many of Australia’s mines will be depleting by 2050. Price volatility has made financiers hesitant, and the regulatory burden is growing,” Perks said. “It’s not too late, but if Australia doesn’t back growth, other regions will take that share.”

In contrast, China’s share is set to remain relatively stable at around 25%, supported by continued investment in domestic resources and an emphasis on battery supply chain dominance.

North American supply is set to increase from 1.7% of mined supply in 2026 to 13% by 2050, as the region works to meet its own domestic requirements and reduce reliance on China. North America currently accounts for 6% of lithium demand from cell production, which is forecast to increase to 12% by 2050.

Europe is similarly targeting domestic and allied supply chain development. The region currently accounts for less than 1% of mined supply, despite accounting for 7% of lithium demand from cell production. By 2050, 5.5% of mined lithium is forecast to come from Europe, compared with 8% of demand.

“Europe and North America face their own unique challenges,” Perks added. “Many of the largest and most promising projects require novel technology or face environmental and community concerns. These aren’t insurmountable, but they create significant delays, and they mean mines built in these regions simply cost more.”

What could impact this number?

This analysis assumes Benchmark’s base case. The number of mines could be significantly higher if the upside scenario of almost nine million tonnes LCE of demand is realised, driven largely by EV and energy storage policies worldwide.

“In our upside case, the equivalent number of mines rises to around 180, which would require well over US$150 billion,” Perks said. “And even the base-case investment could prove conservative, depending on where the mines are built.”

Recycling is the biggest factor that could reduce the number of new mines needed. Benchmark forecasts recycling will account for almost half of lithium supply by 2050. Benchmark’s capex analysis, which assumes recycling meets a significant share of future demand, puts the investment needed to meet 2040 lithium demand at around US$64 billion.

“Recycling will grow, but our base case asks a lot of it,” Perks said. “It’s limited by how quickly batteries reach end of life, and it still needs to compete with mines on cost. Every tonne that recycling doesn’t deliver has to come from a mine.”